Pick any case and see the official drop rates per rarity, the rare-special (knife/glove) chance, the StatTrak odds and an honest expected value versus the cost of a key. Pure transparency — no opening, no gambling.
Choose a case to reveal its official rarity drop rates, knife chance and the expected value of a single open versus the key price.
A single open of the — returns an estimated — in average item value, against a key cost of $2.49. Net per open: —.
Item-value estimates are rough community averages and change constantly — treat them as illustrative, not exact. The drop-rate percentages above are Valve's official published odds and are identical for every weapon case.
How this works: Rarity drop rates are Valve's published consumer-grade container odds, identical across standard weapon cases. Expected value is illustrative and uses live market prices, so treat any single figure as an estimate.
Pick any popular case for its official drop rates, knife chance and an honest expected-value breakdown versus the key cost.
The official odds per rarity tier, how the RNG roll works and why the gambler's fallacy fools openers.
What the 0.26% rare-special chance really means across many opens — and why dry streaks don't raise it.
An honest expected-value breakdown of key cost versus average returns, and the cheaper alternative.
Choose from popular CS2 cases in the dropdown.
See the official drop rate for every rarity tier as a bar chart.
Compare the expected value of one open against the ~$2.49 key cost.
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The rare-special tier covering all knives and gloves has a published chance of 0.26% per open, roughly one in 384 cases. That figure is the same across standard weapon cases and resets on every open.
Valve's published consumer-grade odds are 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert and 0.26% rare special (knife or glove). They are identical across standard weapon cases.
For pure value, usually not — the average item from a single open tends to be worth less than the roughly $2.49 key. If you want a specific skin, buying it on the market is almost always cheaper than opening for it.
The case itself is often free from in-game drops, so the real cost is the key at roughly $2.49 per open. Prices vary slightly by region and over time.
No. Each open is an independent draw at the same 0.26% rare-special rate, so a long dry streak does not make you "due" a knife. The odds only accumulate across many opens in a statistical sense, never on a single one.
Valve does not publish a separate StatTrak figure. Community estimates put it at roughly one in ten for eligible items, so treat that as an approximation rather than a confirmed rate.
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