CS2 Case Drop Rates Explained
Every weapon case in Counter-Strike 2 shares the same published odds. Here is exactly what those numbers mean and how the roll works.
The official odds per rarity
Valve publishes the consumer-grade container odds, and they are identical across every standard weapon case. When you open one, the item is drawn against these fixed probabilities:
- Mil-Spec (Blue) — 79.92%: by far the most common outcome.
- Restricted (Purple) — 15.98%: roughly one in six.
- Classified (Pink) — 3.20%: around one in thirty-one.
- Covert (Red) — 0.64%: roughly one in 156.
- Rare Special (Gold knife or glove) — 0.26%: about one in 384.
On top of the rarity roll, items can also land as StatTrak. Community estimates put that at roughly one in ten for eligible items, though Valve does not publish a separate StatTrak figure, so treat that as an approximation.
How the RNG roll works
Each open is an independent draw. The game effectively rolls a random number and maps it onto those probability bands, then picks a specific skin and a random wear value within that tier. Nothing about your previous opens changes the next roll.
- The rarity tier is selected against the fixed percentages above.
- A specific skin within that tier is chosen.
- A float (wear) value is rolled, deciding Factory New through Battle-Scarred.
- A separate roll decides whether the item is StatTrak.
The gambler's fallacy
The most expensive mistake in case opening is believing you are "due" a knife after a dry streak. You are not. Because every open is independent, the 0.26% rare-special chance resets in full on each one. Twenty blue drops in a row do not nudge the odds upward — the next open is still 0.26%.
This is the gambler's fallacy, and it is exactly why an honest view of the maths matters. To see how those odds translate into expected value for a specific case, use the case odds calculator, or read our breakdown of whether CS2 cases are worth opening.