CS2 Mil-Spec Odds — Blue Skin Drop Rate Guide
Mil-Spec items have a drop probability of 79.92% in every CS2 case, which equals approximately 1 in 1.25 cases. This rate is identical across all weapon cases.
Expected Mil-Spec Items by Cases Opened
| Cases | Expected Mil-Spec | Probability of 1+ |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 7.99 | 100.00% |
| 25 | 19.98 | 100.00% |
| 50 | 39.96 | 100.00% |
| 100 | 79.92 | 100.00% |
| 250 | 199.80 | 100.00% |
| 500 | 399.60 | 100.00% |
| 1000 | 799.20 | 100.00% |
How Mil-Spec Drops Work
When you open a CS2 case, the game engine randomly selects a rarity tier. If the mil-spec tier is selected, the game then randomly chooses one of the mil-spec skins available in that specific case. Each skin within the tier has an equal chance of being selected, though StatTrak versions have a roughly 10% chance of being applied to any drop.
The value of mil-spec items varies enormously depending on the specific skin, its float value, any applied stickers, and whether it has StatTrak technology. Some mil-spec skins are worth very little while others command significant prices on the Steam Market.
Case Odds Calculator
Complete Odds Table
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |