Recoil Case — Odds & Expected Value
The official rarity drop rates for the Recoil Case, the rare-special knife chance, and an honest look at value versus the key cost. Informational only — no opening here.
A graffiti-and-grime themed collection released late in CS:GO and still widely opened in CS2. Added in 2022. The percentages below are Valve's published consumer-grade container odds, which are identical for every standard weapon case — the Recoil Case is no exception.
Official drop rates per rarity
| Rarity tier | Published chance |
|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.2% |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% |
| Rare Special — Knife / Glove (Gold) | 0.26% |
These are draw probabilities for a single open. Each open is independent, so a long run without a high tier does not make the next open more likely to hit one.
Knife & glove odds
The rare-special (gold) tier covers all knives and gloves at a published 0.26% per open — roughly one in 385. For the Recoil Case this slot is the Standard rare-special knife group (no gloves in this case). Because the rate is fixed per open, opening more cases does not raise the chance on any single one; the odds only accumulate across many opens in a statistical sense.
StatTrak odds
Valve does not publish a separate StatTrak figure. Community estimates put it at roughly 10% (about one in ten) for eligible items, so treat that as an approximation rather than a confirmed rate.
Honest expected value vs the key
A single open of the Recoil Case returns an estimated $0.45 in average item value, against a key cost of $2.49. That is a net of −$2.04 per open.
This item-value figure is a rough community market estimate, not an official number — market prices move constantly, so treat it as illustrative. As a rule of thumb, the average item from a single open tends to be worth less than the key, and if you want a specific skin from the Recoil Case, buying it on the Steam Community Market is almost always cheaper than opening for it.
Notable skins in this case
- AK-47 | Leet Museo
- USP-S | Printstream
- AWP | Chromatic Aberration
Top-tier finishes like these sit in the Covert and rare-special slots, which together account for well under 1% of opens — most opens land in the common Mil-Spec tier.
Compare other cases
Want to see how this stacks up? Use the case odds calculator to switch between cases and compare expected value, or browse the full list of CS2 cases. The rarity drop rates are the same everywhere — only the item pool and market values differ.