CS2 Covert Odds — Red Skin Drop Rate Guide
Covert items have a drop probability of 0.64% in every CS2 case, which equals approximately 1 in 156.25 cases. This rate is identical across all weapon cases.
Expected Covert Items by Cases Opened
| Cases | Expected Covert | Probability of 1+ |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.06 | 6.22% |
| 25 | 0.16 | 14.83% |
| 50 | 0.32 | 27.46% |
| 100 | 0.64 | 47.38% |
| 250 | 1.60 | 79.91% |
| 500 | 3.20 | 95.97% |
| 1000 | 6.40 | 99.84% |
How Covert Drops Work
When you open a CS2 case, the game engine randomly selects a rarity tier. If the covert tier is selected, the game then randomly chooses one of the covert skins available in that specific case. Each skin within the tier has an equal chance of being selected, though StatTrak versions have a roughly 10% chance of being applied to any drop.
The value of covert items varies enormously depending on the specific skin, its float value, any applied stickers, and whether it has StatTrak technology. Some covert skins are worth very little while others command significant prices on the Steam Market.
Case Odds Calculator
Complete Odds Table
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |