CS2 Classified Odds — Pink Skin Drop Rate Guide
Classified items have a drop probability of 3.20% in every CS2 case, which equals approximately 1 in 31.25 cases. This rate is identical across all weapon cases.
Expected Classified Items by Cases Opened
| Cases | Expected Classified | Probability of 1+ |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.32 | 27.76% |
| 25 | 0.80 | 55.65% |
| 50 | 1.60 | 80.33% |
| 100 | 3.20 | 96.13% |
| 250 | 8.00 | 99.97% |
| 500 | 16.00 | 100.00% |
| 1000 | 32.00 | 100.00% |
How Classified Drops Work
When you open a CS2 case, the game engine randomly selects a rarity tier. If the classified tier is selected, the game then randomly chooses one of the classified skins available in that specific case. Each skin within the tier has an equal chance of being selected, though StatTrak versions have a roughly 10% chance of being applied to any drop.
The value of classified items varies enormously depending on the specific skin, its float value, any applied stickers, and whether it has StatTrak technology. Some classified skins are worth very little while others command significant prices on the Steam Market.
Case Odds Calculator
Complete Odds Table
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |