Winter Offensive Case Odds
The Winter Offensive Case was released in 2013 and uses the standard CS2 drop rates shared by all weapon cases. Below you will find the complete odds breakdown, probability tables, a calculator, and frequently asked questions.
Winter Offensive Case Drop Rates
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |
Winter Offensive Case Knife Probability
The chance of receiving a knife or gloves from the Winter Offensive Case is exactly 0.26% per opening. On average, you would need to open approximately 385 Winter Offensive Case cases to receive one knife drop. The probability of getting at least one knife across different numbers of cases is shown below.
| Cases | Knife Chance | No Knife | Expected Coverts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.57% | 97.43% | 0.06 |
| 50 | 12.21% | 87.79% | 0.32 |
| 100 | 22.92% | 77.08% | 0.64 |
| 500 | 72.79% | 27.21% | 3.20 |
Winter Offensive Case Calculator
Enter the number of Winter Offensive Case cases you plan to open to see expected drops across all rarities:
Case Odds Calculator
Winter Offensive Case Expected Value
The expected return from opening Winter Offensive Case depends on current market prices for the skins it contains. Use our expected value calculator for Winter Offensive Case to compute the precise EV based on current case and key prices.
Is Winter Offensive Case Worth Opening?
From a pure expected value perspective, no CS2 case is profitable to open on average. The Winter Offensive Case follows this pattern. The expected return is approximately 30-40% of the cost of opening. However, the Winter Offensive Case contains some desirable skins that hold value well, which can make individual results highly variable. The possibility of receiving a high-value knife or rare pattern means some players will profit significantly while the majority will not.
If you choose to open Winter Offensive Case cases, do so for entertainment rather than as an investment strategy. Set a budget you are comfortable losing entirely, as that is the most likely outcome from a mathematical perspective.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds in Winter Offensive Case?
Winter Offensive Case uses the standard CS2 drop rates: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% knife/gloves.
What is the chance of a knife in Winter Offensive Case?
The chance of a knife or gloves from Winter Offensive Case is 0.26% per case opening, the same as every other CS2 case.
Is Winter Offensive Case worth opening?
Like all CS2 cases, the expected value of opening Winter Offensive Case is negative. On average you receive back roughly 30-40% of the opening cost. Individual results vary widely.