Operation Breakout Case Odds
The Operation Breakout Case was released in 2014 and uses the standard CS2 drop rates shared by all weapon cases. Below you will find the complete odds breakdown, probability tables, a calculator, and frequently asked questions.
Operation Breakout Case Drop Rates
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |
Operation Breakout Case Knife Probability
The chance of receiving a knife or gloves from the Operation Breakout Case is exactly 0.26% per opening. On average, you would need to open approximately 385 Operation Breakout Case cases to receive one knife drop. The probability of getting at least one knife across different numbers of cases is shown below.
| Cases | Knife Chance | No Knife | Expected Coverts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.57% | 97.43% | 0.06 |
| 50 | 12.21% | 87.79% | 0.32 |
| 100 | 22.92% | 77.08% | 0.64 |
| 500 | 72.79% | 27.21% | 3.20 |
Operation Breakout Case Calculator
Enter the number of Operation Breakout Case cases you plan to open to see expected drops across all rarities:
Case Odds Calculator
Operation Breakout Case Expected Value
The expected return from opening Operation Breakout Case depends on current market prices for the skins it contains. Use our expected value calculator for Operation Breakout Case to compute the precise EV based on current case and key prices.
Is Operation Breakout Case Worth Opening?
From a pure expected value perspective, no CS2 case is profitable to open on average. The Operation Breakout Case follows this pattern. The expected return is approximately 30-40% of the cost of opening. However, the Operation Breakout Case contains some desirable skins that hold value well, which can make individual results highly variable. The possibility of receiving a high-value knife or rare pattern means some players will profit significantly while the majority will not.
If you choose to open Operation Breakout Case cases, do so for entertainment rather than as an investment strategy. Set a budget you are comfortable losing entirely, as that is the most likely outcome from a mathematical perspective.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds in Operation Breakout Case?
Operation Breakout Case uses the standard CS2 drop rates: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% knife/gloves.
What is the chance of a knife in Operation Breakout Case?
The chance of a knife or gloves from Operation Breakout Case is 0.26% per case opening, the same as every other CS2 case.
Is Operation Breakout Case worth opening?
Like all CS2 cases, the expected value of opening Operation Breakout Case is negative. On average you receive back roughly 30-40% of the opening cost. Individual results vary widely.