Fracture Case Odds
The Fracture Case was released in 2020 and uses the standard CS2 drop rates shared by all weapon cases. Below you will find the complete odds breakdown, probability tables, a calculator, and frequently asked questions.
Fracture Case Drop Rates
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |
Fracture Case Knife Probability
The chance of receiving a knife or gloves from the Fracture Case is exactly 0.26% per opening. On average, you would need to open approximately 385 Fracture Case cases to receive one knife drop. The probability of getting at least one knife across different numbers of cases is shown below.
| Cases | Knife Chance | No Knife | Expected Coverts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2.57% | 97.43% | 0.06 |
| 50 | 12.21% | 87.79% | 0.32 |
| 100 | 22.92% | 77.08% | 0.64 |
| 500 | 72.79% | 27.21% | 3.20 |
Fracture Case Calculator
Enter the number of Fracture Case cases you plan to open to see expected drops across all rarities:
Case Odds Calculator
Fracture Case Expected Value
The expected return from opening Fracture Case depends on current market prices for the skins it contains. Use our expected value calculator for Fracture Case to compute the precise EV based on current case and key prices.
Is Fracture Case Worth Opening?
From a pure expected value perspective, no CS2 case is profitable to open on average. The Fracture Case follows this pattern. The expected return is approximately 30-40% of the cost of opening. However, the Fracture Case contains some desirable skins that hold value well, which can make individual results highly variable. The possibility of receiving a high-value knife or rare pattern means some players will profit significantly while the majority will not.
If you choose to open Fracture Case cases, do so for entertainment rather than as an investment strategy. Set a budget you are comfortable losing entirely, as that is the most likely outcome from a mathematical perspective.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds in Fracture Case?
Fracture Case uses the standard CS2 drop rates: 79.92% Mil-Spec, 15.98% Restricted, 3.20% Classified, 0.64% Covert, and 0.26% knife/gloves.
What is the chance of a knife in Fracture Case?
The chance of a knife or gloves from Fracture Case is 0.26% per case opening, the same as every other CS2 case.
Is Fracture Case worth opening?
Like all CS2 cases, the expected value of opening Fracture Case is negative. On average you receive back roughly 30-40% of the opening cost. Individual results vary widely.