CS2 Knife Odds — Complete Probability Guide

The probability of receiving a knife or pair of gloves from any CS2 case is exactly 0.26%, which translates to approximately 1 in 384.6 cases. This page provides a complete analysis of knife drop probability across different numbers of case openings.

Knife Probability Table

The probability of getting at least one knife in N cases follows the formula: P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^N. This accounts for the cumulative probability across multiple independent trials.

Cases	Knife Chance	No Knife	Expected Coverts
1	0.26%	99.74%	0.01
5	1.29%	98.71%	0.03
10	2.57%	97.43%	0.06
25	6.30%	93.70%	0.16
50	12.21%	87.79%	0.32
100	22.92%	77.08%	0.64
150	32.33%	67.67%	0.96
200	40.59%	59.41%	1.28
250	47.84%	52.16%	1.60
300	54.21%	45.79%	1.92
385	63.30%	36.70%	2.46
500	72.79%	27.21%	3.20
750	85.81%	14.19%	4.80
1000	92.60%	7.40%	6.40

Understanding Knife Probability

Many players misunderstand how probability works with case openings. The statement that a knife drops once per 385 cases on average does not mean you are guaranteed a knife after opening 385 cases. It means that across a very large number of trials, the average number of cases between knife drops converges toward 385.

After opening 385 cases, your cumulative probability of having received at least one knife is approximately 63.3%. This means roughly one in three players who open 385 cases will not have received a knife. Even after 1,000 cases, approximately 7.4% of players will still not have seen a knife drop.

This is because each case opening is independent. The 385th case has exactly the same 0.26% probability as the first. There is no accumulation of luck, no hidden counter, and no pity system that guarantees a drop after a certain number of attempts.

Knife Probability by Case Count

Frequently Asked Questions