Chance of Getting a Knife in 500 CS2 Cases
If you open 500 CS2 cases, you have a 72.79% chance of receiving at least one knife or pair of gloves. This means there is a 27.21% chance you will open 500 cases and receive no knife at all.
Expected Drops from 500 Cases
| Rarity | Expected Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 399.60 | 79.92% each |
| Restricted | 79.90 | 15.98% each |
| Classified | 16.00 | 3.20% each |
| Covert | 3.20 | 0.64% each |
| Knife/Gloves | 1.30 | 0.26% each |
How This Is Calculated
The probability of getting at least one knife in 500 cases uses the complement formula: P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^500 = 1 - 0.272071 = 0.7279 = 72.79%.
This formula works because it calculates the probability of NOT getting a knife 500 times in a row (which is (1 - 0.0026)^500), and then subtracts that from 1 to get the probability of getting at least one knife.
With 500 cases, you have better than even odds of receiving at least one knife. However, a 27.21% chance of no knife is still substantial and should be expected as a realistic outcome.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the chance of getting a knife in 500 CS2 cases?
The probability of getting at least one knife in 500 CS2 cases is 72.79%. This is calculated using P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^500.
Is 500 cases enough for a knife?
500 cases gives you a 72.79% chance. You have better than even odds but it is not guaranteed.