Chance of Getting a Knife in 250 CS2 Cases
If you open 250 CS2 cases, you have a 47.84% chance of receiving at least one knife or pair of gloves. This means there is a 52.16% chance you will open 250 cases and receive no knife at all.
Expected Drops from 250 Cases
| Rarity | Expected Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 199.80 | 79.92% each |
| Restricted | 39.95 | 15.98% each |
| Classified | 8.00 | 3.20% each |
| Covert | 1.60 | 0.64% each |
| Knife/Gloves | 0.65 | 0.26% each |
How This Is Calculated
The probability of getting at least one knife in 250 cases uses the complement formula: P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^250 = 1 - 0.521604 = 0.4784 = 47.84%.
This formula works because it calculates the probability of NOT getting a knife 250 times in a row (which is (1 - 0.0026)^250), and then subtracts that from 1 to get the probability of getting at least one knife.
With 250 cases, you are more likely to receive no knife than to receive one. You would need approximately 267 cases for a 50% chance.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the chance of getting a knife in 250 CS2 cases?
The probability of getting at least one knife in 250 CS2 cases is 47.84%. This is calculated using P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^250.
Is 250 cases enough for a knife?
250 cases gives you a 47.84% chance. You are more likely to not get a knife than to get one.