Chance of Getting a Knife in 25 CS2 Cases
If you open 25 CS2 cases, you have a 6.30% chance of receiving at least one knife or pair of gloves. This means there is a 93.70% chance you will open 25 cases and receive no knife at all.
Expected Drops from 25 Cases
| Rarity | Expected Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 19.98 | 79.92% each |
| Restricted | 4.00 | 15.98% each |
| Classified | 0.80 | 3.20% each |
| Covert | 0.16 | 0.64% each |
| Knife/Gloves | 0.07 | 0.26% each |
How This Is Calculated
The probability of getting at least one knife in 25 cases uses the complement formula: P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^25 = 1 - 0.936988 = 0.0630 = 6.30%.
This formula works because it calculates the probability of NOT getting a knife 25 times in a row (which is (1 - 0.0026)^25), and then subtracts that from 1 to get the probability of getting at least one knife.
With 25 cases, you are more likely to receive no knife than to receive one. You would need approximately 267 cases for a 50% chance.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the chance of getting a knife in 25 CS2 cases?
The probability of getting at least one knife in 25 CS2 cases is 6.30%. This is calculated using P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^25.
Is 25 cases enough for a knife?
25 cases gives you a 6.30% chance. You are more likely to not get a knife than to get one.