Chance of Getting a Knife in 1000 CS2 Cases
If you open 1000 CS2 cases, you have a 92.60% chance of receiving at least one knife or pair of gloves. This means there is a 7.40% chance you will open 1000 cases and receive no knife at all.
Expected Drops from 1000 Cases
| Rarity | Expected Count | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | 799.20 | 79.92% each |
| Restricted | 159.80 | 15.98% each |
| Classified | 32.00 | 3.20% each |
| Covert | 6.40 | 0.64% each |
| Knife/Gloves | 2.60 | 0.26% each |
How This Is Calculated
The probability of getting at least one knife in 1000 cases uses the complement formula: P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^1000 = 1 - 0.074023 = 0.9260 = 92.60%.
This formula works because it calculates the probability of NOT getting a knife 1000 times in a row (which is (1 - 0.0026)^1000), and then subtracts that from 1 to get the probability of getting at least one knife.
With 1000 cases, you have better than even odds of receiving at least one knife. However, a 7.40% chance of no knife is still substantial and should be expected as a realistic outcome.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the chance of getting a knife in 1000 CS2 cases?
The probability of getting at least one knife in 1000 CS2 cases is 92.60%. This is calculated using P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^1000.
Is 1000 cases enough for a knife?
1000 cases gives you a 92.60% chance. You have better than even odds but it is not guaranteed.