Chance of Getting a Knife in 100 CS2 Cases

If you open 100 CS2 cases, you have a 22.92% chance of receiving at least one knife or pair of gloves. This means there is a 77.08% chance you will open 100 cases and receive no knife at all.

22.92%
Knife Chance
77.08%
No Knife
0.64
Expected Coverts
3.20
Expected Classifieds

Expected Drops from 100 Cases

RarityExpected CountProbability
Mil-Spec79.9279.92% each
Restricted15.9815.98% each
Classified3.203.20% each
Covert0.640.64% each
Knife/Gloves0.260.26% each

How This Is Calculated

The probability of getting at least one knife in 100 cases uses the complement formula: P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^100 = 1 - 0.770791 = 0.2292 = 22.92%.

This formula works because it calculates the probability of NOT getting a knife 100 times in a row (which is (1 - 0.0026)^100), and then subtracts that from 1 to get the probability of getting at least one knife.

With 100 cases, you are more likely to receive no knife than to receive one. You would need approximately 267 cases for a 50% chance.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What is the chance of getting a knife in 100 CS2 cases?

The probability of getting at least one knife in 100 CS2 cases is 22.92%. This is calculated using P = 1 - (1 - 0.0026)^100.

Is 100 cases enough for a knife?

100 cases gives you a 22.92% chance. You are more likely to not get a knife than to get one.