Falchion Case Expected Value
Calculate whether the Falchion Case is worth opening based on current market prices. Enter the case price and key price below to see the expected return, profit or loss, and ROI percentage.
Expected Value Calculator
Understanding Falchion Case EV
The expected value of the Falchion Case depends on the current market prices of all skins it contains, weighted by their drop probabilities. Since approximately 80% of drops are Mil-Spec items worth very little, the EV is heavily influenced by the value of the rarer items — particularly the covert and knife/gloves tier.
When calculating EV, remember that the total cost per opening includes both the case price and the key price ($2.49). Even if a case sells for $0.03 on the Steam Market, the total opening cost is still $2.52, making the effective EV calculation require a relatively high average return to break even.
Falchion Case Drop Rates
| Rarity | Probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec (Blue) | 79.92% | 1 in 1.25 |
| Restricted (Purple) | 15.98% | 1 in 6.26 |
| Classified (Pink) | 3.20% | 1 in 31.25 |
| Covert (Red) | 0.64% | 1 in 156.25 |
| Exceedingly Rare (Gold) | 0.26% | 1 in 384.6 |
Expected Drops per 100 Cases
| Rarity | Expected in 100 Cases |
|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | ~80 items |
| Restricted | ~16 items |
| Classified | ~3.2 items |
| Covert | ~0.64 items |
| Knife/Gloves | ~0.26 items |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is Falchion Case profitable to open?
On average, no. Like all CS2 cases, the expected return from Falchion Case is approximately 30-40% of the opening cost. Individual results vary widely due to rare high-value drops.
What is the expected return of Falchion Case?
The expected return depends on current skin prices. Use the calculator above to compute EV based on current case and key prices.